CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-01T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28924/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 780.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 469.140 Acceleration: 1.15234 Duration in seconds: 240198.89 Duration in days: 2.7800797 % Compiled module: CALDAT. t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.15 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 745.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/02/2024 Time: 02:43 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 41.95 hour(s)
Difference: -0.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-02-02T08:38Z
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